I’ve updated my “Poll of Polls” to include 12 more polls that were carried out since I did my last graph. The graphs now include the Greens as I now have data for them too.
This week we had two outliers polls that got a lot of people excited. One was from ICM for the Guardian that gave the Tories a 6 point lead. The other was from TNS BMRB who had a 7 point lead for Labour. Cue people being very naughty and cherry picking the polls that suited their narrative, and ignoring the other polls. But, given the other 10 polls that week were all very similar and showed little movement, the most likely explanation was that these two polls were outliers at the edge of the margin of error. Overall this Poll of Polls shows no real change from last week.
If you want to download the spreadsheet that did this analysis go here. If you want to understand the methodology behind the “Poll of Polls” click here and scroll down to the bit that gives the description.