Weekly movement of the “Poll of Polls” updated to 23-04-15

Poll of Polls weekly movement - 230415I’ve just updated my Poll of Polls for polls up to 23-04-15 and it can be found post below. Above is the updated graph showing the weekly movement in the Poll of Polls.

It shows a slight but clear upward trend for Labour over the past few weeks. There is some definite, if albeit modest, momentum for Labour.

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Poll of Polls now updated to 23-04-15 – Lab lead by 0.2%

Poll of Polls - 230415The Poll of Polls has been updated. Some points to note:

  1. It includes polls up to and including 23 April.
  2. The last Poll of Polls had a 0.7% lead and this week it has gone down to a 0.2% lead. Over the past five weeks of the main camapign Labour have seen a slight increase in their lead.

If you want to download the spreadsheet that did this analysis go here. If you want to understand the methodology behind the “Poll of Polls” click here and scroll down to the bit that gives the description.

Weekly movement of the “Poll of Polls” updated to 17-04-15 – Labour continue to have (modest) momentum

Poll of Polls weekly movement - 170415I’ve just updated my Poll of Polls for polls up to 17-04-15 and it can be found post below. Above is the updated graph showing the weekly movement in the Poll of Polls.

It shows a slight but clear upward trend for Labour over the past few weeks. There is some definite, if albeit modest, momentum for Labour.

If you want to download the spreadsheet that did this analysis go here. If you want to understand the methodology behind the “Poll of Polls” click here and scroll down to the bit that gives the description.

Poll of Polls now updated to 17-04-15 – Lab lead rises marginally (again)

Poll of Polls - 170415The Poll of Polls has been updated. Some points to note:

  1. It includes polls up to and including 17 April.
  2. The last Poll of Polls had a 0.6% lead and this week it has gone up to a 0.7% lead. So there is is very modest momentum for Labour.

If you want to download the spreadsheet that did this analysis go here. If you want to understand the methodology behind the “Poll of Polls” click here and scroll down to the bit that gives the description.

Weekly movement of the “Poll of Polls” updated to 12-04-15 – shows Labour have (modest) momentum

Poll of Polls weekly movement - 120415

I’ve just updated my Poll of Polls for polls up to 12-04-15 and it can be found in the here. Above is the updated graph showing the weekly movement in the Poll of Polls.

What is interesting is that it shows a slight but discernible upward trend in the polls for Labour in the past four weeks. It’s often said by political pundits that it’s “all about momentum” – it looks like there is some modest momentum with Labour.

If you want to download the spreadsheet that did this analysis go here. If you want to understand the methodology behind the “Poll of Polls” click here and scroll down to the bit that gives the description.

Poll of Polls now updated to 12-0415 – Lab lead rises marginally

Poll of Polls - 120415The Poll of Polls has been on a short break, but it’s now back. Some important things to note:

  1. It includes polls up to and including 12 April.
  2. I’ve tweaked the methodology a bit. It now takes a weighted average over the past 14 days of polls as oppose to the last 60 days. This is because I’ve been using a similar methodology to that used by Nate Silver who correctly called 50 out of 51 states in the last US election, and as the election drew nearer Silver only use the polls from the last 14 days. Given this was successful for him I will attempt to mimic his success.
  3. The half life of 30 days for each poll remains
  4. There is a small but discernible Labour lead

If you want to download the spreadsheet that did this analysis go here. If you want to understand the methodology behind the “Poll of Polls” click here and scroll down to the bit that gives the description.