Poll of Polls now updated to 12-0415 – Lab lead rises marginally

Poll of Polls - 120415The Poll of Polls has been on a short break, but it’s now back. Some important things to note:

  1. It includes polls up to and including 12 April.
  2. I’ve tweaked the methodology a bit. It now takes a weighted average over the past 14 days of polls as oppose to the last 60 days. This is because I’ve been using a similar methodology to that used by Nate Silver who correctly called 50 out of 51 states in the last US election, and as the election drew nearer Silver only use the polls from the last 14 days. Given this was successful for him I will attempt to mimic his success.
  3. The half life of 30 days for each poll remains
  4. There is a small but discernible Labour lead

If you want to download the spreadsheet that did this analysis go here. If you want to understand the methodology behind the “Poll of Polls” click here and scroll down to the bit that gives the description.

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One thought on “Poll of Polls now updated to 12-0415 – Lab lead rises marginally

  1. Pingback: Weekly movement of the “Poll of Polls” updated to 12-04-15 – shows Labour have (modest) momentum | More Known Than Proven

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