- It includes polls up to and including 12 April.
- I’ve tweaked the methodology a bit. It now takes a weighted average over the past 14 days of polls as oppose to the last 60 days. This is because I’ve been using a similar methodology to that used by Nate Silver who correctly called 50 out of 51 states in the last US election, and as the election drew nearer Silver only use the polls from the last 14 days. Given this was successful for him I will attempt to mimic his success.
- The half life of 30 days for each poll remains
- There is a small but discernible Labour lead
If you want to download the spreadsheet that did this analysis go here. If you want to understand the methodology behind the “Poll of Polls” click here and scroll down to the bit that gives the description.