The final Poll of Polls – it’s very close

Poll of Polls - 060515Here is the final Poll of Polls and it includes all polls published up to 20:00 today. Ashcroft and Mori will publish tomorrow, but unless they are huge outliers they will not affect the Poll of Polls, so I’m going with what I’ve got so far.

The verdict is, perhaps unsurprisingly, that it’s very close but with a slight Conservative lead. But see below for my reasoning on why I think on the day Labour will be slightly ahead.

Given everyone is making predictions I thought I’d add mine:

Vote Share

Labour vote share will be 0.5% higher than the Poll of Polls to reflect the better ground operations of Labour, and the Conservatives will be correspondingly 0.5% lower.

Ukip vote share will go up on the Poll of Polls vote share because of the “shy Ukippers” who don’t like to tell pollsters they will vote Ukip. But they will also lose vote share because of their much poorer GOTV operation. Overall these two things will cancel out and mean their vote share is as per the Poll of Polls.

Scotland

As with the “shy Ukipper” effect in England there will be a “shy Labour” affect in Scotland (similar to the “shy no” in the independence referendum) which along with tactical voting will mean Labour won’t suffer total wipe out and get between 3 and 7 seats.

Shocks

Alex Salmond will get run very close in Gordon. One punter has wagered £3,000 that he will lose. I’m not so confident but I predict whoever wins will have a majority less than 1,000.

Clegg will hold his seat but end up being removed as Lib Dem leader after the Lib Dems end up with fewer than 25 seats and what remains of his party disagree with his attempts to form a coalition with the Conservatives.

Farage will not win his seat.

Overall

Conservative 273
Labour 273
Liberal Democrat 27
UKIP 1
SNP 53
Green 1
Other 22

Yep, I’m calling a dead heat between the two big parties.

Roll on 8 May to find out what the only poll that counts has to say.

If you want to download the spreadsheet that did this analysis go here. If you want to understand the methodology behind the “Poll of Polls” click here and scroll down to the bit that gives the description.

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