More out of idle curiosity and fun, than because I think this is necessarily an accurate prediction, I thought I’d do some modelling on the possible EU referendum outcome based upon the votes for each party in the 2015 general election.
This is a simple interactive model you can play with yourself. It works by you looking at each of the major parties and you entering what percentage of those who voted for that party in 2015 will vote to remain in the EU referendum.
The model then does its magic by taking that percentage and applying it to the votes cast for that party in 2015 and summing it up to give a nifty graph of the predicted remain / leave vote share. I’ve stuck in my own assumptions to give a win to remain but you can enter your own assumptions in the red text below.
If you want to use it on a phone or tablet you need to double tap one of the red cells to get it to bring up the keyboard.