Does buyer’s remorse affect the EU referendum result?

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I’ve seen a screenshot of the results of a ComRes post EU referendum poll, asking voters if they are happy with the results of the referendum result.

The polls shows that 1% of Leave voters are unhappy with the result. Given 17.4 million people voted Leave this is 174,000 unhappy Leave voters.

There was a winning margin of 1.3 million votes and even if all of the 174,000 Leave voters actually have buyer’s remorse and would have voted Remain, it would still have been a win for Leave, albeit with a reduced winning margin of 0.95 million votes.

For Remain to be able to claim buyer’s remorse is a significant factor they need to be able to show that at least 4% of Leave voters were unhappy.

For the sake of full disclosure: I voted Remain

Edited to add:

This morning a Twitter user @jabd1980 hit me up with the following very pertinet question:

Twitter pic regrexit

So I went onto the ComRes website and found a margin of error calculator. So I stuck in the figures of 33.5 million for the population size (total number who voted) and sample size of 1,069 (given on the screenshot) and got a margin of error of 3.0.

This means the buyer’s remorse effect is just on the edge of the margin of error. But only just.

 

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2 thoughts on “Does buyer’s remorse affect the EU referendum result?

  1. “For Remain to be able to claim buyer’s remorse is a significant factor they need to be able to show that at least 4% of Leave voters were unhappy.”

    Surely this ignores those who complacently didn’t bother to vote, confident for some reason that Remain would win. One imagines that quite a lot of them would bother to get off their backsides and vote next time

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    • That is a fair point but I’m not aware of any polling that has been done to quantity the stay at home remain numbers. So it is just guess work without at least some form of polling.

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