The graph above shows the match outcomes (home win, draw and away win) as a percentage of the total number of Premier League matches officiated by that ref. The graph is for every ref in the seasons from 2010/10 to 201o/15/16. That is 2,660 matches. I got the data from here.
The dashed lines show the home win, draw and away win percentages across the 2,660 match sample so you can compare each ref with the average across the time period.
The number in brackets after each ref’s name is the number of games tat they have refereed. I’d say that it’s only worth trying to draw firm conclusions from those refs who have refereed more than 50 matches as that gives enough data to smooth out any outliers.
Those refs near the top who have officiated at over 100 matches seem quite consistent in their results profile, apart from:
- A Taylor who seems to give significantly fewer home wins, and signficantly more away wins.
- L Mason who gives more away wins and fewer draws than average.
- N Swarbrick who appears to give a lot fewer home wins than average.
To really understand how significant these deviations are I’d need to do a standard deviation calculation weighted by the number of matches officiated at. But I didn’t have time for that.
I was also surprised to see that more matches end up as an away win than as a draw. I thought it would be the other way around.
Why have I done this? Mainly because I can to hone my Excel skills. Also, if you are prone to the odd wager on the football this is information that might help you.
An Excel nerd point: the use of the horizontal dot plot required some significant wrangling as Excel does not have this type of chart as an option. Look here for the instructions on how to do it.