The other day I blogged about the decline of the SNP and I’ve done a little more analysis to see where Labour can make inroads.
The two graphs below show quite clearly that there is fertile ground for Labour in Scotland, but there are also some possible gains for the Tories.
The first graph shows the SNP majorities in ascending order, grouped by second party. Many of these majorities are very slim and the Tories are second in only eight of the 33 SNP held seats, with Labour second in the other 25.
The second graph plots the number of votes for each party in the general election and shows that in some seats the second and third parties are very close.
All in all, it shows Scotland is very much in play and on the current results it looks hopeful for Labour.
Edited to add: one of the commenters on the blog and Glen O’Hara spotted that there were some seats missing. I checked my work and saw I’d got a gremlin in the system that filtered a few seats out of the graph. The correct updated graphs are now displayed. Thank to those who have helped me make this accurate.